智利的非法贸易和香烟的实际价格
Guillermo Paraje1,2, Luca Pruzzo1, Mauricio Flores Muñoz1
1Business School, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Peñalolen, Chile.
Tobacco induced diseases
|September 27, 2023
概括
烟草行业关于智利非法卷烟贸易日益增加的说法是毫无根据的. 数据显示,自2018年以来,非法贸易透率有所下降,这与行业的说法相反.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 烟草行业声称,烟草税推动了智利的非法贸易,估计在2022年将达到37%.
- 人口调查和税务数据与此相矛盾,显示自2018年以来非法贸易正在下降.
研究的目的:
- 分析智利非法卷烟贸易的演变.
- 评估烟草行业关于非法贸易和税收的说法.
主要方法:
- 采用差距分析,使用身份:总消费 = 纳税消费 + 非法消费.
- 通过比较全国香烟消费与注册的纳税香烟销售,估计了非法贸易的透率.
主要成果:
- 2020年,智利的非法贸易透率约为10%,远低于行业的说法.
- 从2015年到2021年,净税后的真实香烟价格上,而更便宜的品牌价格上最快.
- 这一价格上发生在烟草税收没有变化的时期.
结论:
- 关于智利非法贸易透率增加的说法没有得到消费和纳税人烟草数据的支持.
- 该研究表明,烟草税以外的其他因素可能会影响香烟价格和非法贸易动态.
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