使用最大值建模估计Sclerotinia sclerotiorum的气候
1Center for Regulatory Research, LLC, 2355 Highway 36 West, Suite #400, Minnesota, MN 55113, USA.
Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland)
|September 27, 2023
概括
这项研究模拟了Sclerotinia sclerotiorum的气候利基,这是一种导致作物损失的真菌病原体. 了解其息地适宜性有助于制定新的疾病管理策略.
科学领域:
- 植物病理学 植物病理学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物气候学 生物气候学
背景情况:
- 斯克莱罗提尼亚 (Sclerotinia sclerotiorum) 是一个重要的真菌病原体,负责全球作物损失.
- 目前的疾病管理策略需要增强.
- 气候利基模型可以为生物控制剂和文化控制方法的选择提供信息.
研究的目的:
- 使用马克森特建模来描述斯克莱罗提尼亚斯克莱罗蒂乌勒的气候利基.
- 确定影响真菌分布的关键生物气候变量.
- 为有针对性的疾病管理生成息地适宜性地图.
主要方法:
- 使用了Maxent软件用于生态利基模型.
- 采用生物气候数据层 (WorldClim) 和发生数据.
- 使用ArcGIS 10.8.1进行了地理空间分析,并进行了交叉相关性以减少变量.
- 使用曲线下面面积 (AUC) 和Z-Score统计测试验证实模型性能.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型实现了0.935.5的高平均AUC.
- 最冷季度的平均温度 (55.6%) 和年降水 (14.1%) 是最关键的变量.
- 创建了一个息地适合性地图,显示潜在的分布区域.
- 模型验证证实数据集之间没有显著差异.
结论:
- 使用Maxent进行气候利基建模对Sclerotinia sclerotiorum是有效的.
- 最冷季度的平均温度和年度降水量是其息地适宜性的关键决定因素.
- 生成的地图可以指导开发综合疾病管理策略.
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