在秋冬综合条件下成都细颗粒的预测
Jingchao Yang1,2, Ge Wang1,2, Chao Zhang3
1Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072, China.
Toxics
|September 27, 2023
概括
在成都精细颗粒的准确预测取决于天气模式. 对于2米相对湿度和10米风速的短期预报 (24小时) 可以改善细颗粒预测.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 空气质量研究 空气质量研究
背景情况:
- 微粒污染对健康构成重大风险,特别是在成都等城市地区.
- 了解气象因素对空气质量的影响对于有效的污染控制战略至关重要.
- 之前的研究已经强调了在各种天气条件下预测颗粒物度的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 评估气象因素预报对中国成都细颗粒预报的影响.
- 分析在秋冬期间不同天气模式下预报的准确性.
- 确定影响细颗粒预报的关键气象变量.
主要方法:
- 利用了欧洲科技合作组织 (COST) 的733个客观的天气分类软件.
- 在模拟中使用了社区多层次空气质量 (CMAQ) 模型.
- 在四种不同的天气模式下分析了细颗粒和气象因素的预测准确性.
主要成果:
- 细颗粒污染在高压后部,均质压和低压条件下普遍存在,但在高压底部条件下较低.
- 对微粒的预测准确性在高压底部条件下和24小时预测时最高.
- 2m相对湿度和10m风速预测在高压底部条件下更准确,并显著影响了细颗粒预测; 2m空气温度不是一个重要因素.
结论:
- 天气模式显著影响细颗粒污染水平及其预报的准确性.
- 短期气象预报,特别是相对湿度和风速,对于改善细颗粒预报至关重要.
- 这些发现为开发成都有针对性的空气质量管理战略提供了宝贵的见解.
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