日本的癌症患病率预测和癌症负担变化的分解分析,2020-2050:统计建模研究
Phuong The Nguyen1,2, Megumi Hori3, Tomohiro Matsuda1
1National Cancer Center Institute for Cancer Control, Tokyo, Japan.
概括
预计到2050年,日本的癌症患病率将增加13.1%,预计女性将超过男性. 这一增长凸显了加强癌症控制策略和幸存者支持的需要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 癌症患病率预测对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
- 日本面临着人口老龄化,影响疾病负担.
- 性别特定的癌症趋势需要详细分析.
研究的目的:
- 为日本22个癌症部位提供性别分层的癌症患病率预测,直到2050年.
- 分析影响未来癌症患病率的人口和流行病学因素.
- 为癌症控制策略提供信息,并为幸存者提供支持.
主要方法:
- 利用基于场景的方法,将预计的发病率和生存率结合起来.
- 用于发生率预测的就业年龄时期队列模型.
- 应用周期分析和多个参数生存模型用于生存估计.
- 进行了分解分析,以确定患病率变化的驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,癌症患病率将达到367万例,比2020年增加13.1%.
- 预计女性患病率将增加27.6%,从2040年开始超过男性患病率.
- 大肠直肠癌,女性乳腺癌,前列腺癌,肺癌和胃癌将是最常见的.
- 预计男性的前列腺,肺和淋巴瘤的患病率显著增加;女性的乳腺,结直肠和子宫体.
结论:
- 癌症的患病率是由人口老龄化,发病率趋势和生存率的改善决定的.
- 主动预防,早期检测和有效治疗至关重要.
- 这些发现支持日本全面的癌症控制和幸存者护理.
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