在气候变暖中,强烈的热带气旋季节性推进
Kaiyue Shan1, Yanluan Lin2, Pao-Shin Chu3
1State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Nature
|September 27, 2023
概括
强烈的热带气旋 (TC) 在今年早些时候在大多数海洋中转移. 这种由温室气体驱动的进步增加了风险, 导致TC与其他极端天气事件重叠.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 天气学
- 海洋学
背景情况:
- 强烈的热带气旋对生命和财产构成重大威胁.
- 由于其破坏性影响,了解TC活动的潜在变化至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究强烈热带气旋的季节性变化.
- 在TC中观察到的季节性变化背后的驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 分析自20世纪80年代以来的热带气旋数据.
- 使用气候模型模拟,包括大型组合和个人强迫实验.
- 研究了TC季节性,快速强化和海洋条件之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 自20世纪80年代以来,在大多数热带海洋中观察到强烈的TC季节性增长.
- 季节性增长率为3.7天/十年 (北半球) 和3.2天/十年 (南半球).
- 这种进步与较早出现的海洋条件有关, 主要是由温室气体驱动的.
结论:
- 温室气体排放正在推动强烈的TC较早出现.
- 季节性增长增加了与其他极端降雨事件同时发生的可能性.
- 这种重叠预计会导致严重的影响.
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