文明兴衰的一个简单模型
Rickard Nyman1, Paul Ormerod2,3, R Alexander Bentley4
1Centre for Decision Making Uncertainty, University College London, London WC1H 0PY, UK.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|September 28, 2023
概括
文明的兴衰是由于创新过程造成的. 一个模型表明,本地复制的增加使复杂的社会更容易崩.
科学领域:
- 考古学的考古学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 复杂的系统复杂的系统.
背景情况:
- 文明的崩是一个复杂的现象,有很多原因,从环境因素到内部社会动态.
- 现有的文献涵盖了考古学到20世纪历史,重点关注由等级制度和专业知识定义的早期国家社会.
研究的目的:
- 基于创新过程,提出古代文明的兴衰的一般模型.
- 探索不同的代理行为如何影响社会动态和稳定.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个基于累积文化进化的计算模型.
- 在多个规模 (从个人到政治) 的模拟代理,具有不同的机构记忆,发明率和本地/全球复制倾向.
主要成果:
- 该模型复制了社会兴衰的关键方面,产生了极端的成功层次结构.
- 结果表明,增加对本地复制的倾向显著增加了社会脆弱性.
结论:
- 社会复杂性和层次结构来自于同样的创新过程,这些创新过程可能导致解体.
- 即使是对本地复制的微小转变也可以破坏复杂的文明的稳定,突出显示社会结构的脆弱性.
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