ANCOC得分可以预测不同SARS-CoV-2变种和疫苗接种状态中的死亡率
Marcello Candelli1, Marta Sacco Fernandez2, Giulia Pignataro1
1Emergency, Anesthesiological and Reanimation Sciences Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli-IRCCS of Rome, 00168 Rome, Italy.
Journal of clinical medicine
|September 28, 2023
概括
安科克得分准确地预测了COVID-19患者的60天死亡风险,无论疫苗接种状态或病毒变种如何. 这种临床工具帮助急诊医生做出关键的治疗决策.
科学领域:
- 紧急医疗 紧急医疗
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 临床预测模型临床预测模型
背景情况:
- COVID-19 疫情继续影响全球医院.
- 需要可靠的临床评分来预测SARS-CoV-2患者的死亡风险.
- ANCOC评分 (年龄,血液尿素,C-反应蛋白,氧和,并发病) 之前被开发用于预测COVID-19死亡率.
研究的目的:
- 为了内部验证ANCOC得分.
- 评估ANCOC得分预测60天死亡率的能力.
- 评估得分的预测能力是否独立于疫苗接种状态和SARS-CoV-2变种.
主要方法:
- 追溯录取了843名因COVID-19而入院的患者.
- 数据收集包括人口统计,并发病,疫苗接种情况和实验室参数.
- ANCOC分数计算了来自三角洲 (2021年7月至9月) 和Omicron (2022年1月) 变异波的患者的分数.
主要成果:
- 欧米克朗变异患者年龄较大,并患有更多的并发病 (高血压,慢性肺炎).
- 疫苗接种率在各个变种之间存在差异 (34%的三角形病毒和56%的Omicron).
- 接收机操作特征 (ROC) 曲线分析显示,两种变体的曲线下面面积>0.8,表明强大的预测准确性.
结论:
- 安科克得分有效预测COVID-19患者的60天死亡率.
- 无论病毒变种或疫苗接种情况如何,得分的准确性都保持不变.
- ANCOC评分是紧急医生指导患者管理和治疗的宝贵工具.
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