在76000名已知心血管疾病患者中开发和验证心血管风险预测方程
Anders Holt1,2, Bruno Batinica1, Jingyuan Liang1
1Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, University of Auckland, 85 Park Road, Grafton, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
European journal of preventive cardiology
|September 28, 2023
概括
使用新西兰的链接健康数据开发了新的心血管风险方程. 这些工具更好地对已知心血管疾病 (CVD) 患者的风险进行分层,改善预防性治疗决策.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 心血管医学 心血管医学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 链接的卫生行政数据库为流行病学研究提供了宝贵的资源.
- 以前的心血管风险预测模型可能无法完全捕捉到不同人群的细微差别.
研究的目的:
- 通过链接健康数据开发和验证特定性别的心血管风险预测方程.
- 确定已确定的心血管疾病 (CVD) 患者心血管事件的关键预测因素.
主要方法:
- 利用新西兰奥特亚罗亚的链接行政健康数据库来识别18-84岁的已知心血管疾病的队列.
- 随访队列长达5年,以确定心血管事件 (死亡或住院).
- 开发了使用多变量 Fine 和 Gray 模型的特定性别预测方程.
主要成果:
- 对43,862名男性和32,724名女性制定了方程,分别确定了14,252例和9,551例心血管事件.
- 统计学上显著的预测因素包括年龄,贫困,种族 (毛利),吸烟,并发病 (心力衰竭,糖尿病,脏疾病,心房动) 和药物使用.
- 在整个人口中,在预测的5年心血管疾病风险方面表现出显著的异质性.
结论:
- 从例行链接的健康数据库成功开发了强大的心血管风险预测方程.
- 风险分层超出一般的高风险类别对于优化已知心血管疾病患者的预防策略至关重要.
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