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美国大陆的气候预测基于历史天气的热力学修改
Andrew D Jones1,2, Deeksha Rastogi3, Pouya Vahmani4
1Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, USA. adjones@lbl.gov.
Scientific data
|September 28, 2023
概括
这项研究通过重新播放历史天气并添加加热信号来模拟未来的气候条件. 这种方法允许科学家通过参考过去的事件来探索气候变化如何影响极端天气事件.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 区域气候模型在经过修改的热力学条件下模拟过去的天气事件,以了解未来的气候影响.
- 动态缩小历史天气数据为探索气候变化影响提供了基础.
研究的目的:
- 通过参考历史天气,创建一个数据集来检查可信的未来气候条件.
- 系统地探索热力学变化如何影响历史极端天气事件特征.
主要方法:
- 使用大气再分析,动态缩小了过去40年 (1980-2019) 的天气序列.
- 根据四个未来的变暖轨迹 (2020-2099年) 重复了40年序列八次,随着时间的演变产生了基于四个未来变暖轨迹 (2020-2099年) 的热力学变暖信号.
- 气候变暖信号遵循两个排放场景 (SSP585,SSP245) 并来自具有高气候和低气候敏感性的全球气候模型.
主要成果:
- 在12公里空间分辨率下生成了一个数据集,包含25个小时变量和200多个3小时变量.
- 该数据集可以直接比较未来的气候场景与观察到的历史天气.
- 促进对历史极端事件的热力学影响的系统分析.
结论:
- 创建的数据集为研究气候变化对极端天气影响提供了一种新的方法.
- 这种方法允许直接引用过去的天气,增强对未来气候变化的理解.
- 为研究人员调查变暖对历史天气模式的影响提供了宝贵的资源.
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