使用面板数据回归分析分析影响印尼中等收入陷的因素的统计建模
Vita Ratnasari1, Salsabila Hidayatul Audha1, Andrea Tri Rian Dani2
1Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Data Analytics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya, Indonesia.
MethodsX
|September 29, 2023
概括
印度尼西亚面临中等收入陷 (MIT),阻碍经济增长. 预期寿命和投资等关键因素影响省级麻省理工学院,其预测模型准确率为97.65%.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 发展研究 发展研究 研究
- 区域经济学 区域经济学
背景情况:
- 中等收入陷 (MIT) 描述了经济在达到中等收入状态后停滞不前.
- 印度尼西亚经历了波动,在中高中收入分类之间移动.
- 省级分析对于了解印尼本地化MIT动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在印尼省级确定中等收入陷 (MIT) 的特征.
- 确定影响一个省陷入麻省理工学院的关键因素.
- 为印尼省份的麻省理工学院开发一个预测面板数据回归模型.
主要方法:
- 利用面板数据回归分析,结合横截面和时间序列数据.
- 2010-2020年的人均就业区域国内生产总值 (GRDP) 作为MIT指数的代理.
- 由中央统计局 (BPS) 发布的分析数据.
主要成果:
- 确定了影响中等收入陷的三个重要变量:预期寿命,总参与率和总固定资本增加.
- 开发了一个面板数据回归模型,准确度高达97.65%.
- 该模型为省级MIT的具体驱动因素提供了洞察力.
结论:
- 预期寿命,总参与率和总固定资本增加是印尼各省MIT的关键决定因素.
- 开发的模型为理解和潜在地减轻MIT提供了一个强大的工具.
- 针对这些变量进行的有针对性的政策干预可以帮助印尼省份摆脱中等收入陷.
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