巴西东北部的Mpox:与确诊诊断相关的时空分析和预测因素
José Valter J Silva Júnior1,2, Carlos Dornels Freire de Souza3, Eduardo Furtado Flores1
1Setor de Virologia, Departamento de Medicina Veterinária Preventiva, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Journal of medical virology
|September 29, 2023
概括
巴西的Mpox疫情呈现出明显的模式. 非异性恋男性,男性性别和多重伴侣关系是珀南布科州mpox诊断的关键预测因素,指导公共卫生工作.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 自2022年5月以来的全球mopox疫情呈现出一种新的流行病学特征.
- 巴西是第二高的病例数,面临着重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 了解区域MPOX动态对于有针对性的干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了分析巴西珀南布科州mopox病例的时空分布.
- 确定与mopox.相关的临床和社会特征.
- 为了确定一个积极的mopox诊断的预测因素.
主要方法:
- 关于珀南布科州mopox病例的回顾性横截面研究 (2022年7月 - 2023年3月).
- 对确诊和疑似阴性病例的时空序列的分析.
- 多变量逻辑回归用于识别诊断预测因子.
主要成果:
- 在33个市镇确认了362例mopox病例,在EW 34-35达到顶峰, 2022.
- 常见的症状:皮疹 (87.3%),发烧 (60.2%),头痛 (45.3%),生殖器/周围病变 (40.3%).
- 积极诊断的预测因素:非异性恋倾向 (OR: 23.08),男性性别 (OR: 2.05),多重伴侣关系 (OR: 1.95).
结论:
- 这项研究提供了珀南布科州mopox的时空概述,有助于公共卫生规划.
- 确定了mopox诊断的关键预测因素,包括性取向,性别和伙伴关系状况.
- 调查结果为有效的控制策略提供了对mopox流行病学的关键见解.
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