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在风险和弹性基础设施规划分析中包括公平性在风险和弹性基础设施规划中的定量方法
Thushara Gunda1, Amanda Wachtel1, Shruti Khadka Mishra1
1Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|September 29, 2023
概括
一个新的逻辑模型将社区公平优先级纳入定量基础设施风险评估中. 该框架加强了关键基础设施的规划,确保实现公平和可持续的发展目标.
科学领域:
- 工程 工程师 工程师 工程师
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
背景情况:
- 关键基础设施风险和弹性评估传统上侧重于自然灾害评估和投资优化等目标.
- 虽然研究已经开始解决外部性,但在项目规划的早期整合股权优先级至关重要,但缺乏标准化的方法.
- 现有的方法往往无法将特定的社区需求和优先事项纳入定量风险评估中.
研究的目的:
- 引入一种新的逻辑模型,用于在基础设施规划中开发以公平信息为基础的定量方法.
- 为在风险评估中纳入各种社区优先事项和地理细微差别提供标准化的方法.
- 证明该框架在各种关键基础设施部门的适用性.
主要方法:
- 开发一种逻辑模型,采用分级,代的方法来定义股权目标.
- 将逻辑模型定制为特定的地理位置和社区优先级,以集成到数学风险评估方法中.
- 通过涉及航空燃料,产生的水和微电网电力基础设施的案例研究来应用和演示框架.
主要成果:
- 逻辑模型有效地阐明了当地优先事项和基础设施需求如何影响数据选择和定量方法.
- 案例研究说明了框架在将社区细微差别 (如资产所有权) 纳入基础设施评估中的实用性.
- 明确考虑方法限制和利益相关者参与,提高了透明度和地方背景的整合.
结论:
- 拟议的逻辑模型为基于股权的定量基础设施风险评估提供了一种标准化的方法.
- 整合社区优先事项和细微差别,可以实现更加透明,公平和有效的基础设施规划.
- 该框架支持与能源和可持续发展目标相一致的长期解决方案的开发.
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