合山甲虫和森林人口动态预测了可能随着气候变化而增加的过渡性疫情
Micah Brush1, Mark A Lewis2,3
1Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada. mbrush@ualberta.ca.
Bulletin of mathematical biology
|September 29, 2023
概括
一个新的模型将森林生长与山甲虫 (MPB) 动态相结合,揭示了森林弹性降低如何增加MPB爆发频率. 这对于管理气候变化下的MPB传播至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
背景情况:
- 加拿大山甲虫 (MPB) 疫情正在扩大到加拿大的历史范围之外.
- 以前的模型没有充分捕捉长期森林动态和MPB相互作用.
- 气候变化和森林性降低加剧了MPB传播风险.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新型模型,将森林生长与MPB人口动态相结合.
- 准确地表示MPB生物学,包括聚合和人口统计学Allee效应.
- 在不同的森林弹性下评估长期的MPB动态.
主要方法:
- 森林生长和MPB人口动态的结合数学建模.
- 纳入MPB聚合和人口统计学Allee效应.
- 对折叠分叉和稳定的非零MPB平衡的分析.
主要成果:
- 森林弹性降低导致MPB人口平衡稳定非零.
- MPB种群表现出短暂的繁荣衰退周期,受森林恢复时间的影响.
- 降低宿主弹性下降的Allee值增加了未来短暂爆发的可能性.
结论:
- 新模型提供了对长期MPB动态和扩张风险的关键见解.
- 森林的性是影响MPB爆发严重程度和频率的关键因素.
- 管理策略必须考虑气候变化对森林弹性和MPB种群动态的影响.
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