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模拟中国在不同自然灾害下的电力系统弹性
Hao Chen1, Kai Gong2, Yunhao Chang2
1School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China; Department of Chemistry, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China.
Journal of environmental management
|September 30, 2023
概括
本研究使用新的框架和历史停电数据量化了对自然灾害的电力系统弹性. 提高弹性可显著降低紧急救援成本,节省数百万.
科学领域:
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 灾害管理 灾害管理
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 了解电力系统的弹性对于投资和应急响应至关重要.
- 现有的定量弹性估计受到数据可用性的限制.
研究的目的:
- 建立一个统一的框架来衡量各种自然灾害下的电力系统弹性.
- 通过使用历史停电数据,估计中国城市级电力系统的弹性.
- 分析提高电力系统弹性带来的经济效益.
主要方法:
- 电能性能曲线与动态不可操作性输出输出模型的整合.
- 创建一个数据库,包含285个中国自然灾害造成的历史停电事件.
- 城市级电力系统弹性值的估计.
主要成果:
- 电力系统从冰中恢复最快 (23.05小时),从暴风雪中恢复最慢 (117.31小时).
- 中国的城市电力系统对雷暴的抵抗力最高,对地震的抵抗力最低.
- 通过提高弹性,减少1%的初始不可操作性可以节省0.57至12.08万元的紧急救援成本.
结论:
- 开发的框架提供了一种可靠的方法来量化电力系统的弹性.
- 研究结果突出了自然灾害对电力系统恢复和弹性的影响的差异.
- 对电力系统弹性进行投资,通过减少与灾害相关的救援开支,为经济带来了巨大的好处.
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