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Updated: Jul 15, 2025

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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在中国的双碳时期,在一个快速城市化的流域中,对排水和营养物质负载的多场景模拟
Jiang Wu1, Yao Yue2, Cheng-Xin Qin3
1Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, 518055, China.
Environmental research
|September 30, 2023
概括
有效的生态保护是管理水资源和控制城市化流域中污染的关键. 未来的预测显示越来越多的不确定性,特别是对于负载.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 城市化流域在环境变化下面临着关键的水文和营养变化.
- 现有的研究往往忽视了中国双碳时期的水质和未来负载评估.
- 在这些地区,未来全面的排水和营养负载评估是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 通过评估深河流域未来的下水和营养物质负载来弥补研究缺口.
- 构建综合城市发展和生态保护水平的多场景模型.
- 为未来的评估利用偏差纠正的全球气候模型 (GCM) 预测.
主要方法:
- 校准和验证的水文和营养模型.
- 基于"城市发展 - 生态保护"等级的多场景建设.
- 对气候变量进行偏差校正的GCM预测的应用.
主要成果:
- 模型在模拟排水,营养负载和土地利用方面表现出令人满意的表现.
- 偏差纠正的GCM改善了温度预测,特别是在雨季.
- 生态保护措施对于减轻水量波动和总污染至关重要.
结论:
- 总负荷预测表现出显著的不确定性,特别是在碳中立时期的干旱季节.
- 流水变化最小,但显示季节性变化;预测不确定性随着时间的推移而升级.
- 解决GCM驱动的降水不确定性对于准确的排水和营养负载模拟至关重要.
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