在亚马逊森林砍伐和2°C的全球变暖下对南美水分传输的影响
Murilo Ruv Lemes1, Gilvan Sampaio2, Luis Garcia-Carreras3
1General Coordination of Earth Science (CGCT), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil; University of Manchester (UoM), School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Manchester, United Kingdom.
The Science of the total environment
|September 30, 2023
概括
亚马逊森林砍伐和温室气体排放大大减少了南美洲的水分传输和降水量. 这对亚马逊和拉普拉塔盆地都有影响,对该地区造成严重的气候和经济后果.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 温室气体 (GHG) 排放和森林砍伐的增加正在改变全球气候模式.
- 亚马逊的水分运输对南美洲的水资源至关重要,特别是巴西东南部.
- 了解局部和全球强迫对这种水分传输的影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估亚马逊森林砍伐和温室气体度增加如何影响水分传输.
- 模拟未来的气候变化场景,使用结合的陆地大气模型.
主要方法:
- 利用两个合的陆地大气模型,由CMIP6海面温度强制.
- 模拟了两个场景:增加的二氧化碳 (CO2) (00DEF) 和增加的二氧化碳 (100DEF) 的亚马逊森林砍伐总量.
- 对比模拟与对照运行在当今条件下.
主要成果:
- 这两种情景都导致更早地达到特异变暖水平2 (SWL2) 指数.
- 在亚马逊 (-3.1 mm·day−1) 和拉普拉塔 (-0.5 mm·day−1) 盆地观察到降水减少.
- 降低了亚马逊蒸发转化率 (-0.9 mm·day-1),并将水分输送到拉普拉塔盆地减少了22%.
结论:
- 大规模的亚马逊森林砍伐加剧了气候变化的影响,减少了关键的水分传输.
- 两个盆地的水文制度相互联系,这表明气候,经济和社会影响广泛.
- 该研究显示,区域影响比之前估计的要严重得多.
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