通过使用多尺度大气建模框架,检查核云上升期间土壤浸入对降落预测的影响
Katherine A Lundquist1, Robert S Arthur1, Stephanie Neuscamman1
1Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, United States.
Journal of environmental radioactivity
|October 1, 2023
概括
目前的核辐射模型与升高的引爆作斗争. 这项研究通过更准确地模拟云的上升和降落来改善预测,特别是在爆发的无降落高度附近.
科学领域:
- 核物理和大气科学 核物理和大气科学
- 放射学和环境建模.
背景情况:
- 现有的核云起模型已被验证为表面或浅层爆炸.
- 这些模型由于有限的地面相互作用和不完整的混合,无法充分预测接近无辐射爆发高度 (FFHOB) 的升高爆炸的落后.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证核云升起和落后的改进模型,特别是FFHOB附近的爆炸.
- 为了捕捉核云内的分层粒子和活动大小分布.
主要方法:
- 使用了天气研究和预测 (WRF) 模型,并增强了用于火球初始化的辐射-水力学代码.
- 在WRF-Chem内部开发了一种气溶包,以模拟升高的土壤.
- 集成的WRF云上升模拟与国家大气释放咨询中心 (NARAC) 运营性降落模型.
主要成果:
- 成功模拟了Upshot-Knothole Grable爆炸,从爆炸到降落,用于FFHOB下方的一个场景.
- 与历史数据相比,实现了更好的剂量率预测.
- 强调了在核云中准确地描述物质携带和混合的关键重要性.
结论:
- 改进的建模方法为升级爆炸提供了更准确的落后预测.
- 准确地描述引进和混合过程对于可靠的核降下物建模至关重要.
- 需要进一步开发,以完善核云上升期间复杂大气相互作用的模型.
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