在碳边境关税下,中国工业复杂网络的稳定性和干扰性
Wenwen Zhou1, Ruilin Feng1, Mengyao Han2,3,4
1School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, People's Republic of China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|October 2, 2023
概括
中国的碳密集型产业面临着碳边境关税带来的重大风险. 钢铁,肥料和有色金属行业特别脆弱,其潜在影响波及整个工业网络.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 工业生态学 工业生态学
- 网络科学 网络科学
背景情况:
- 欧盟委员会于2021年7月提出的碳边界调整机制 (CBAM) 刺激了全球对其经济和环境影响的兴趣.
- 了解碳关税对工业网络的影响对于国际贸易和气候政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析碳边境关税对中国碳密集型产业的影响.
- 通过网络建模和级联故障分析,模拟中国工业综合体网络中的风险传播.
主要方法:
- 复杂的网络建模被用来绘制工业相互依存的地图.
- 连锁故障分析用于模拟经济冲击的传播.
- 根据关税情景,针对特定行业进行了定量影响评估.
主要成果:
- 碳边境关税针对的行业是中国工业结构的核心,与建筑,金属和制造业有着密切联系.
- 对钢铁行业征收关税可能导致中国相关行业减少1.29%,其次是肥料 (1.11%) 和有色金属 (0.95%).
- 传染值为0.8表明出口冲击可能会破坏整个工业网络的稳定,导致广泛的"感染".
结论:
- 碳边境关税对中国的工业综合体构成系统性风险,需要积极的适应战略.
- 这项研究为理解产业联系提供了一个框架,并为低碳转型制定了有针对性的政策建议.
- 关键的碳密集型行业需要战略规划,以减轻国际碳定价机制对经济的影响.
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