全球畜牧业和牛的回顾性和预计的温暖化等价排放量,用一种称为GWP的替代气候指标计算
Agustin Del Prado1,2, Brian Lindsay3, Juan Tricarico4
1Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Edificio Sede no. 1, Planta 1, Parque Científico de UPV/EHU, Barrio Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain.
PloS one
|October 2, 2023
概括
每年将全球牛肉甲 (CH4) 排放量减少0.32%,可以稳定它们的变暖影响. 为了实现净零温室气体 (GHG) 目标和限制全球气温上升,畜牧业的更快的CH4减缓至关重要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 将全球变暖限制在1.5°C需要净零二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放和减少非CO2温室气体 (GHG) 排放.
- 全球畜牧业是甲 (CH4) 和氧化 (N2O) 的重要来源,有助于气候变化.
- 了解从畜牧业所需的具体CH4减少对于使减缓努力与全球温度目标保持一致至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 探索全球变暖潜力 (GWP*) 和对累积碳排放的暂时气候反应 (TCRE) 的实用性,以评估畜牧业对气候的影响.
- 估计全球牛畜部门直接排放的CH4的历史和预期变暖贡献.
- 为了比较畜牧业排放对气候的影响与其他行业,如化石燃料和土地利用变化.
主要方法:
- 利用现有的排放数据集来估计CH4从1750年到2019年的变暖.
- 应用GWP*和TCRE来将历史和预测的排放转化为温度变化.
- 根据三个历史和三个未来的排放场景,模拟了未来的变暖贡献.
主要成果:
- 估计了可归因于畜牧业直接CH4排放的总变暖的数量和部分.
- 根据各种排放场景,预测该行业未来对全球变暖的贡献.
- 发现,畜牧业持续每年减少0.32%的CH4排放,将稳定其未来的变暖效应.
结论:
- 畜牧业的持续降低CH4排放量可以稳定甚至扭转其历史的气候变暖贡献.
- 牛牧业中CH4缓解干预的速度和程度是全球峰值温度的关键决定因素.
- 本研究提供了一个框架,用于比较畜牧业对气候的影响与使用GWP*和TCRE的其他排放源.
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