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一个更清洁的雪的未来可以减轻北半球由于变暖而造成的积雪损失
Dalei Hao1, Gautam Bisht2, Hailong Wang2
1Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA. dalei.hao@pnnl.gov.
Nature communications
|October 2, 2023
概括
预计黑碳等吸光粒子 (LAP) 将减少,从而减少融雪和减少辐射强迫. 这种更清洁的雪未来有利于供水,特别是在可持续发展情景下.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 吸光粒子 (LAP) 使雪变黑,加速融化,影响区域气候.
- 对LAP沉积的未来变化及其对相对于全球变暖的积雪动态的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测未来的黑碳沉积及其在雪中的辐射强迫.
- 量化气候变化和LAP演变对积雪的单独影响.
- 评估这些变化对融雪和供水的影响,特别是在西藏高原.
主要方法:
- 利用地球系统模型模拟来预测未来的场景.
- 分析了黑碳沉积和LAP诱导的辐射强迫的变化.
- 量化了气候变化和 LAP 演变对雪地变化的贡献.
主要成果:
- 预计到2081-2100年,黑色碳沉积量将大幅减少.
- 北半球雪中LAP诱导的辐射强迫预期下降.
- 证明在西藏高原降低LAP的雪量将显著缓解气候变化造成的雪盖损失 (SSP126为52.1%,SSP585为8.0%).
结论:
- 由于LAP减少,未来的雪地被预计会更清洁.
- 降低雪中的LAP为未来的雪融供水提供了巨大的好处.
- 可持续发展路径 (SSP126) 显示了对雪地和水资源的最显著的积极影响.
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