密西西比州的气候趋势和玉米生产联系:来自ARDL建模的经验证据
Ramandeep Kumar Sharma1, Jagmandeep Dhillon2, Pushp Kumar3
1Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Mississippi State University, Mississippi, USA.
Scientific reports
|October 3, 2023
概括
气候变化正在影响密西西比州的玉米产量. 气温上升和二氧化碳增加带来长期的产量,而极端的热量和降水变化则减少了这些产量,需要可持续农业的适应性战略.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球农业构成重大威胁.
- 气候趋势对密西西比州 (MS) 玉米 (Zea mays L.) 产量的具体影响在很大程度上仍未得到量化.
- 了解这些影响对于确保区域粮食安全和农业可持续性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析密西西比州从1970年到2020年的关键气候变量的历史趋势.
- 用先进的计量经济模型量化气候变化对玉米产量的短期和长期影响.
- 确定关键月份,将气候变量与玉米产量波动联系起来.
主要方法:
- 气候变量 (最大温度,最小温度,日间温度范围,降水,相对湿度,二氧化碳) 的趋势分析,使用曼-肯德尔和森的斜率方法.
- 自动回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型用于评估气候变量对玉米产量的影响.
- 皮尔森的相关矩阵,以确定气候与玉米相互作用的关键月份.
主要成果:
- 在最高温度 (0.13°C/十年),最低温度 (0.27°C/十年) 和CO2 (5.1单位/十年) 中观察到显著的上升趋势.
- 在白天温度范围 (-0.15°C/十年) 中发现了显著的下降趋势;降水和相对湿度显示微不足道的增加.
- ARDL模型解释了76.6%的玉米产量变化,Tmax对产量产生了负面影响,而Tmin和CO2从长远来看对其产生了积极影响.
结论:
- 气候变化,以气温和二氧化碳的上升为特征,对密西西比州的玉米生产产生了复杂的影响.
- 农业管理策略和品种发展必须适应减轻负面影响,并利用可持续玉米生产的潜在好处.
- 确定关键的气候-玉米相互作用时期对于有针对性的适应措施至关重要.
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