当没有进一步的诊断测试可用时做出决定 (预期后悔理论值模型)
Benjamin Djulbegovic1, Iztok Hozo2
1Hematology Stewardship Program, Division of Hematology/Oncology, Department of Medicine, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA. djulbegov@musc.edu.
Cancer treatment and research
|October 3, 2023
概括
这项研究将遗憾理论应用于以前使用预期效用理论分析的决策问题. 它探讨了遗憾是如何影响合理的选择,当诊断测试是不可用的.
科学领域:
- 决策科学 决策科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
背景情况:
- 预期效用理论 (EUT) 提供了一个在不确定性下合理决策的框架.
- 在第2章之前的分析中,EUT在没有进一步的诊断测试的情况下应用于决策问题.
- 后悔理论提供了对决策的另一种观点,重点关注结果的心理影响.
研究的目的:
- 将遗憾理论应用于第2章中使用EUT分析的相同决策问题.
- 为了比较和对比后悔下的决策与预期的效用.
- 在缺乏进一步诊断信息的场景中调查遗憾厌恶的含义.
主要方法:
- 重新分析第2章的决策问题.
- 遗憾理论原则的应用,以评估选择.
- 通过EUT和遗憾理论预测的结果的比较分析.
主要成果:
- 在某些决策场景中,遗憾理论预测了与EUT相比的不同选择.
- 缺乏诊断测试加剧了潜在遗憾的影响.
- 决策受到了遗憾的预期的影响,而不仅仅是预期的结果.
结论:
- 遗憾理论为非纯粹理性的决策提供了宝贵的见解.
- 了解后悔厌恶对于在实际情况下模拟选择至关重要.
- 该框架强调了影响不确定性下决策的心理层面.
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