评估CMIP5全球气候模型的技能,使用埃塞俄比亚的多标准决策分析
Endalkachew Tesfaye1, Brook Abate2, Taye Alemayehu1
1Ethiopian Institute of Water Resources, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Heliyon
|October 4, 2023
概括
这项研究评估了30个气候模型,用于模拟埃塞俄比亚的降水和温度. 多模型组合 (MME) 显示出卓越的表现,突出了利用多种指标和时间尺度对气候模型进行全面评估的需要.
科学领域:
- 气候建模和影响研究.
- 水文气象学和气候变化研究.
- 气候数据的统计分析.气候数据的统计分析.
背景情况:
- 准确模拟气候变量对于区域影响评估至关重要.
- 评估全球气候模型 (GCM) 的技能对于可靠的气候预测至关重要.
- 埃塞俄比亚的中阿瓦什分盆地 (MASB) 面临着显著的气候变化.
研究的目的:
- 评估30个CMIP5 GCM和一个多模型组合 (MME) 在模拟MASB上的降水 (Pr),最小 (Tmin) 和最大 (Tmax) 温度时的性能.
- 为了比较不同的统计绩效指标 (SPM) 和多标准决策 (MCDM) 分析,用于GCM评估.
- 为了确定该地区未来气候和水文研究的最佳表现的GCM和MME.
主要方法:
- 在原始历史模拟 (1981-2005) 上使用5个SPM (平均值,CV,PBIAS,RSR,r) 评估30个GCM和MME.
- 使用三种SPM (PBIAS,RSR,r) 的MCDM分析,按法加权,来对GCM进行排序.
- 使用气候变量的简单算术平均值方法生成MME.
主要成果:
- 根据使用的SPM,时间尺度和数据格式,GCM的表现有很大差异.
- 在MCDM分析中,CMCC-CMS,BCC-CSM1.1(m),CMCC-CM,BNU-ESM,CanESM2和MPI-ESM-MR被确定为模拟Pr,Tmin和Tmax的高性能GCM.
- 与大多数单个GCM相比,MME在复制观察到的气候特征方面表现优越.
结论:
- 在各种环境中使用多个SPM对GCM进行全面评估至关重要.
- 在选择集成的GCM时,建议独立处理每个气候变量 (Pr,Tmin,Tmax).
- 该研究为MASB和类似地区的未来气候和水文研究提供了宝贵的见解.
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