联合物种分布建模揭示了北太平洋白在贝林架上的猎物景观的变化
Dana L Wright1,2,3, David G Kimmel4, Nancy Roberson5
1Duke University Marine Laboratory, Beaufort, North Carolina, USA.
概括
气候变化正在改变贝林海北部的关键猎物物种的分布,例如Calanus glacialis. 这可能会导致临灭绝的北太平洋公 (NPRW) 追随,增加它们因人类活动而面临的风险.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
背景情况:
- 北太平洋真 (NPRW) 处于极度危状态,最近对其通常食区以北的观测与减少的海冰相吻合.
- 海冰和水温显著影响贝林海东南部的动物浮游生物动态,影响海洋哺乳动物的猎物可用性.
- 由于海洋变暖而导致猎物分布的变化,可能会增加NPRW对纠和船只袭击的脆弱性.
研究的目的:
- 在变暖的条件下 (2006-2016) 模拟贝林海中关键的NPRW猎物 (Calanus glacialis,Neocalanus,Thysanoessa) 的丰富性.
- 调查密度依赖和环境因素在动物浮游生物群落动态中的作用.
- 评估环境变化对动物浮游生物分布和可能向北转移的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了一个动态的生物物理食物网模型,结合了九个动物浮游生物协会.
- 包括密度依赖来探索动物浮游生物群体内的物种相互作用.
- 模拟Calanus glacialis的丰富度以响应环境变量和模拟风吹对稳定状态丰富度的影响.
主要成果:
- 环境因素,特别是海冰和海洋温度,被证实是动物浮游生物动态的主要驱动因素.
- 密度独立的增长是社区动态中占主导地位的因素;密度依赖的因素起到了最小的作用.
- Calanus glacialis表现出显著的环境反应,根据copepodite阶段有所不同,而Neocalanus和Thysanoessa的反应较弱.
- 低海冰冬季与更强的春风,削弱的架子前线和外架物种的转移有关,影响了C. glacialis的发展.
结论:
- 预计变暖趋势和海冰流失将推动Calanus glacialis分布向北转移.
- 这种猎物迁徙可能会导致北太平洋正的相应向北移动.
- 这种转移可能会增加NPRW的风险,因为它可能与新地区的航道和渔具相互作用.
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