全球761个社区的洪水相关的死亡风险:时间序列研究
Zhengyu Yang1, Wenzhong Huang1, Joanne E McKenzie1
1School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
概括
洪水显著增加了多达60天的全因,心血管和呼吸道死亡风险. 这些风险在低收入国家和老年人群中更高,因气候而异.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 全球卫生健康 全球卫生健康
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,全球洪水正在增加.
- 了解洪水对健康的影响对于公共卫生准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估洪水暴露和死亡风险之间的滞后反应关系.
- 评估洪水暴露对全球所有原因,心血管和呼吸道死亡率的影响.
主要方法:
- 一项跨国时间序列研究分析了来自35个国家的761个社区的数据.
- 用分布式滞后非线性函数的准森模型来评估死亡风险.
- 随机效应元分析汇集了特定社区的关联.
主要成果:
- 洪水后60天死亡风险增加,累计相对风险为1.021 (所有原因),1.026 (心血管) 和1.049 (呼吸道).
- 关联因国家,气候类型,社会经济地位和年龄而异,在低收入国家和老年人群中更为强烈.
- 洪水被认为是所有原因死亡的0.10%,心血管死亡的0.18%,呼吸道死亡的0.41%.
结论:
- 洪水暴露与持续增加的死亡风险有关.
- 气候类型,社会经济地位和人口年龄改变了与洪水有关的死亡风险.
- 公共卫生干预措施应考虑到这些因素对弱势群体.
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