全球疾病负担由于耐利芬素结核病:一个数学建模分析
Nicolas A Menzies1,2, Brian W Allwood3, Anna S Dean4
1Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA. nmenzies@hsph.harvard.edu.
Nature communications
|October 4, 2023
概括
2020年,耐利素结核病 (RR-TB) 造成了690万个终身残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs),近一半影响了幸存者. 改善治疗后的护理对于管理RR-TB的长期健康后果至关重要.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 耐利素结核病 (RR-TB) 构成了全球重大卫生挑战.
- 2020年,全球近50万人被诊断患有RR-TB.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计RR-TB的全球,终身负担.
- 根据国家,年龄,性别,艾滋病毒状况和耐药性来分层负担.
- 为了比较RR-TB与药物敏感结核病的负担.
主要方法:
- 综合了来自192个国家的关于RR-TB发病率,病例检测和治疗结果的数据.
- 采用数学模型,在受影响个人的一生中预测残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs).
- 按国家,年龄,性别,艾滋病毒状况和抗利芬素耐药性的分层DALY预测.
主要成果:
- 2020年的RR-TB事件在全球估计占到了690万个DALY.
- 44%的RR-TB负担在结核病幸存者中累积.
- 患有RR-TB的人均DALY为17,比药物敏感结核病高34%.
- 在前苏联和南非国家,每10万人口的RR-TB负担最高.
结论:
- 风险性结核病对长期健康造成重大负担,近一半的影响发生在幸存者身上.
- 这些发现强调了对RR-TB幸存者进行加强治疗后护理的需要.
- 增加对RR-TB预防和管理的投资是有必要的,以减轻其广泛的健康和经济后果.
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