泄漏效应可能会破坏循环经济的努力
Karolina Safarzynska1, Lorenzo Di Domenico2, Marco Raberto3
1Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Dluga 44/50, 00-241, Warsaw, Poland. ke.safarzynska@uw.edu.pl.
Scientific reports
|October 4, 2023
概括
循环经济可以显著削减全球金属开采,特别是铁和. 然而,工业转移到欧盟以外,特别是铜业,对这些努力构成风险.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 工业生态学 工业生态学
- 计算经济学计算经济学
背景情况:
- 之前关于循环经济的研究往往依赖于具有外部假设的静态模型.
- 这些模型通常不考虑公司的投资决策,价格调整或技术创新.
- 需要一种动态的方法来理解循环经济战略不断变化的影响.
研究的目的:
- 动态评估循环经济对全球资源开采的影响.
- 模拟初级部门与二级部门企业的内生投资决策.
- 克服以前基于静态和外源情景的研究的局限性.
主要方法:
- 开发一种新的基于代理的输入输出模型 (ABM-IO).
- 基于代理的建模与输入-输出分析的动态集成.
- 模拟初级和二级部门关于资本扩张的坚定决策.
主要成果:
- 全球实施循环经济可以大幅减少铁,和有色金属的开采.
- 确定了显著的"泄漏效应",即金属密集型工业可能会搬迁到欧盟以外的地区.
- 铜矿开采特别容易受到这种迁移效应的影响,这可能会抵消循环经济的收益.
结论:
- 循环经济为减少全球金属资源开采提供了一个有希望的途径.
- 政策干预必须解决工业泄漏的风险,以最大限度地发挥循环经济倡议的好处.
- 动态建模对于理解循环经济战略对资源管理的复杂,不断变化的影响至关重要.
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