基于动态随机总平衡模型的货币政策风险道的调查:来自伊朗的实证证据
Pejman Peykani1, Mostafa Sargolzaei2, Amir Takaloo2
1School of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
PloS one
|October 5, 2023
概括
这项研究揭示了伊朗的信贷和货币政策风险道. 扩张性货币政策提高了经济产出,通胀和贷款,而信贷冲击增加了贷款和生产,但降低了通胀.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 货币政策分析 货币政策分析
- 银行系统动态 银行系统动态
背景情况:
- 经验证据表明,扩张性货币政策会增加银行风险.
- 银行风险显著影响经济活动和价格水平.
- 了解这些传输机制对于经济稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查伊朗经济中的信贷道和新型货币政策风险道.
- 分析货币政策对实际经济变量和价格水平的影响.
- 建模银行系统,货币政策和经济结果之间的相互作用.
主要方法:
- 使用了一个动态随机总平衡 (DSGE) 模型.
- 包含了有关伊朗银行系统的具体数据.
- 在模型中考虑道德风险和不利选择.
主要成果:
- 证实伊朗存在信用和货币政策风险道.
- 扩张性货币政策冲击对产出,通货膨胀,消费,投资,净资产和贷款产生积极影响.
- 信用冲击增加了贷款能力,促进了生产,消费,投资和净资产,同时降低了通货膨胀.
结论:
- 货币政策和信贷冲击对伊朗经济产生了显著和明显的影响.
- 调查结果强调了在货币政策传播中考虑银行业风险的重要性.
- 政策干预应考虑这些道,以有效管理通货膨胀和经济增长.
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