韩国的人口减少,超级老龄化和极端高温事件
Oh Seok Kim1,2,3, Jihyun Han4, Kee Whan Kim5
1Department of Geography, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
概括
由于气候变化和人口老龄化,韩国面临越来越多的极端高温事件 (EHE) 暴露. 脆弱性将会增加,特别是到2060年在特定地区的老年人,如首尔.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 韩国经历了出生率下降和人口快速老龄化 (超级老龄化).
- 预计气候变化将加剧极端高温事件 (EHE).
- 人口变化必须纳入未来的EHE暴露评估.
研究的目的:
- 分析2010年至2060年在韩国对未来极端热事件 (EHE) 的暴露情况.
- 为了纳入业务如常 (BAU) 人口和气候变化场景.
- 确定国家,次国家和特定年龄段的EHE暴露模式.
主要方法:
- 空间链接业务如常 (BAU) 人口和气候场景.
- 测量和识别国家和地方EHE暴露.
- 分析特定年龄组对EHE的脆弱性.
主要成果:
- 预计全国EHE暴露率将增加,区域差异很大.
- 预计在2040年结束的十年中,最强烈的EHE暴露预计将在2040年结束.
- 由于超级老化,首尔被确定为最脆弱的市;由于严重的EHE,大是最脆弱的.
结论:
- 到2060年,韩国的老年人群可能面临高达四倍的EHE暴露.
- 尽管人口减少,但人口快速老龄化会增加某些地区的EHE脆弱性.
- 整合人口动态对于韩国有效的EHE风险管理至关重要.
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