农作物产量对中国大陆多次干旱的不同反应:时空模式和气候驱动因素
Cun Zhan1, Chuan Liang1, Lu Zhao1
1State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering & College of Water Resource and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
The Science of the total environment
|October 6, 2023
概括
中国的作物产量显示,不同时间尺度和作物类型对干旱的反应各不相同. 了解这些模式对于有效的干旱风险管理和灌战略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 干旱越来越多地威胁着中国的粮食安全.
- 对作物对多次干旱的反应的有限理解阻碍了风险管理.
研究的目的:
- 分析由于干旱导致的作物产量变化的时空模式.
- 确定这些作物干旱反应的关键气候驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 收益率模式的空间主要组件分析 (SPCA).
- 对气候因素进行预测差异分析 (PDA).
- 标准化降水蒸发透气指数 (SPEI) 用于干旱评估.
主要成果:
- 农作物产量的变化在空间,时间和作物类型上是异质的.
- 确定了对大米,小麦,玉米和棉花的干旱应对时间表.
- 季节性气候平均值,水平衡和温度是主要的驱动因素.
结论:
- 干旱对作物产量的影响取决于时间尺度.
- 调查结果为提高干旱抵御能力提供了有针对性的灌策略.
- 了解干旱影响对于中国的粮食安全至关重要.
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