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气候变化对加利福尼亚州高价值特种作物的昆虫害虫的影响

Prakash Kumar Jha¹, Ning Zhang², Jhalendra P Rijal¹

¹Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of California, 2801 2(nd) St., Davis, CA 95618, United States of America.

The Science of the total environment

|October 6, 2023

概括

气候变化将加速加利福尼亚州的害虫生命周期.

科学领域:

农业昆虫学农业昆虫学
气候变化的影响气候变化的影响
虫害管理虫害管理虫害管理

背景情况:

加利福尼亚在核桃,杏仁和桃子生产方面处于领先地位,这对其农业经济至关重要.
像鱼,桃树枝和东方水果这样的虫害虫会对作物造成重大破坏.
气候变化导致的气温上升直接影响害虫的生长和发展速度.

研究的目的:

量化加利福尼亚州中央山谷关键类害虫的生物固定,生命周期长度和代数的预测变化.
评估气候变化对这些经济重要农业害虫动态的影响.

主要方法:

使用了经过验证的生长度日 (GDD) 模型.
结合模型相互比较项目的第5和第6阶段 (CMIP5和CMIP6) 纳入的气候变化预测. 一般循环模型.
将模型应用于整个加利福尼亚州中央山谷进行害虫影响评估.

主要成果:

预计生物修复日期将提前多达28天.
预计害虫的生长时间将缩短至多19天.
到本世纪末,预计每年增加多达1.4个额外的害虫世代,具体情况因情况而异.

结论:

调查结果强调了在气候变化下需要积极的害虫管理策略.
结果可以为开发长期解决方案提供信息,包括生物控制和耐害虫作物品种.
这项研究为了解在不断变化的气候条件下区域害虫动态提供了一个可扩展的框架.

关键词:

杏仁是一种杏仁.生物修复器生物修复器气候变化气候变化气候变化鱼蝶鱼蝶是什么意思一代又一代的世代.东方果是东方果的一种.桃子树枝挖掘机桃子树枝挖掘机桃子是一种桃子.核桃核桃核桃核桃核桃核桃

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