准实验性研究发现,在费城的枪支回购后,没有局部枪支犯罪或电话减少
Jerry H Ratcliffe1, Marc Huffer2
1Department of Criminal Justice, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA jhr@temple.edu.
概括
费城的枪支回购计划并没有减少当地枪支犯罪或服务要求. 这项研究表明,用于枪支回购的资金可能更有效地分配到其他地方.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 城市研究 城市研究
背景情况:
- 自20世纪70年代以来,美国实施了枪支回购计划.
- 现有的研究表明,对全市枪支犯罪率没有重大影响.
- 枪支回购地点周围的微观检查是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 评估枪支回购事件对枪支犯罪和服务呼叫的当地影响.
- 为了分析2019年至2021年间费城34次枪支回购事件的数据.
- 为了确定枪支回购是否会减少事件发生附近的枪支暴力.
主要方法:
- 分析与枪支相关的犯罪事件和警察呼吁从2019年至2021年服务.
- 使用了具有自回归残余结构的多层模型.
- 检查了每周的枪支犯罪和呼叫强度,在30个回购地点的4000-8000英尺范围内,在事件发生后1-4周内.
主要成果:
- 在枪支回购事件和枪支犯罪或服务呼叫的局部减少之间没有发现统计学意义上的关联.
- 枪支事件的强度显示与季节性和乔治·弗洛伊德的谋杀有关的增加.
- 20个敏感性测试证实,在不同距离和时间范围内缺乏局部影响.
结论:
- 这项研究增加了证据,即枪支回购并不能显著减少当地枪支暴力.
- 调查结果质疑目前枪支回购计划资金的有效性.
- 建议探索其他,可能更有效的枪支暴力预防策略.
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