2016-2021年在中国北京的诺罗病毒疫情的传染性量化
Yu Wang1,2, Zhiyong Gao2, Qingbin Lu3
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Journal of medical virology
|October 7, 2023
概括
通过基本繁殖数 (R0) 测量的诺罗病毒传播率估计为2.1的中位数. 在幼儿园和小学观察到更高的传染性,根据年份和诺罗病毒基因型而异.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
- 公共卫生 病毒学 病毒学
背景情况:
- 诺罗病毒的传染性对疾病传播至关重要,但从量上来说很难估计.
- 了解基本的繁殖数 (R0) 对于有效的公共卫生干预对抗诺罗病毒疫情至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计诺罗病毒的基本繁殖数 (R0).
- 调查诺罗病毒随时间,不同爆发环境和诺罗病毒基因型的传播能力的变异特征.
主要方法:
- 分析了2016年9月至2021年8月期间在北京报告的650起诺罗病毒疫情.
- 使用易受感染移除的隔间模型来估计R0.0.
- 采用线性和逻辑回归模型来识别影响诺罗病毒传播的因素.
主要成果:
- 诺罗病毒的整体中位数R0估计为2.1 (IQR1.8-2.5).
- 传染性因年而异,在2019-2021年与2016-2017年相比,具有较低的R0值.
- 与其他环境相比,幼儿园和小学R0值较高 (平均值分别为2.4和2.0).
- 诺罗病毒基因型GII.2[P16]比GII.6[P7]和混合基因型菌株具有更高的传染性 (中位数R0 2.2).
结论:
- 诺罗病毒表现出显著的传染性,R0值表明广泛爆发的可能性.
- 幼儿园和小学是高风险的环境,因为诺罗病毒的传染性增加.
- 诺罗病毒的传染性是动态的,受到时间因素,疫情环境和病毒遗传演变的影响,这需要进一步的机制研究.
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