对于食道状细胞癌患者的生存诺基图的开发:基于人口的分析
Guangrong Lu1, Weiyue Fang2, Ying Lin2
1Department of Gastroenterology, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang, China. 290636246@qq.com.
Journal of gastrointestinal cancer
|October 7, 2023
概括
一个新的预后诺米图准确地预测了食道状细胞癌 (ESCC) 患者的生存率. 这种工具结合了TNM阶段和治疗等因素,优于目前的整体存活率 (OS) 和癌症特异性存活率 (CSS) 的分期系统.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医学统计 医学统计
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 食道状细胞癌 (ESCC) 是一个重要的全球健康问题.
- 准确的预后工具对于指导治疗决策和ESCC患者管理至关重要.
- 现有的分期系统可能无法完全捕捉ESCC预后的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 在ESCC患者中开发和验证一个预后性名谱来预测整体生存率 (OS) 和癌症特异性生存率 (CSS).
- 为了比较开发的名图的预测准确性与当前的TNM分期系统.
主要方法:
- 一项回顾性队列研究,利用来自监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库和当地医院的数据.
- 基于对包括性别,婚姻状况,TNM阶段,手术,化疗和辐射在内的因素的多变量分析开发了一个名ogram.
- 使用哈雷尔一致性指数 (C指数) 和接收器操作特征 (ROC) 曲线的曲线下的面积 (AUC) 验证名录的预测性能.
主要成果:
- 纳米图包含了重要的预后因素:性别,婚姻状况,TNM阶段,手术,化疗,放射和瘤等级.
- 与第七个TNM分阶段系统相比,名图显示了OS (C-index=0.743) 和CSS (C-index=0.748) 的优越预测能力.
- 对于2年和5年的OS (0.805-0.812) 和CSS (0.811-0.821) 实现了高AUC值,ROC和校准曲线证实了良好的准确性.
结论:
- 开发的名图表作为一个有价值和准确的工具来估计ESCC患者的OS和CSS.
- 这种预后模型可以帮助临床医生制定个性化治疗策略和患者咨询.
- 在多种不同人群中进行进一步验证可能会增强诺姆图的临床实用性.
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