巴西野火暴露和学术成绩:对于时空空间数据的因果推理方法
Sean McGrath1, Rajarshi Mukherjee1, Weeberb J Réquia2
1Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA.
The Science of the total environment
|October 7, 2023
概括
野火暴露会对青少年的学业表现产生负面影响,随着时间的推移,影响会恶化. 这项研究量化了巴西学生的教育后果.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 教育心理学教育心理学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在全球范围内增加野火频率和强度.
- 青少年是易受环境压力因素影响的脆弱人群.
- 量化野火暴露对教育的影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计野火暴露对巴西高中生学业绩的因果关系.
- 分析野火暴露对教育成果的纵向影响.
- 为政策干预提供证据,以减轻野火对年轻人的影响.
主要方法:
- 在纵向数据上使用因果推断方法.
- 分析了来自1,571个巴西市镇的8,183所高中 (2009-2015) 的数据.
- 基于野火密度变化的学术成绩指标的量化变化.
主要成果:
- 野火暴露与大多数学科的学业表现下降有关.
- 随着野火密度的增加,自然科学成绩显著下降1.8%.
- 在研究期间,对学业成绩的不利影响加剧了.
结论:
- 野火暴露显著损害了青少年的教育成果.
- 长期暴露会加剧对学业成绩的负面影响.
- 这些发现强调了需要制定战略来保护学生免受野火影响.
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