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应对气候变化的可能适应措施,防止日本老年人中热中风
Marie Fujimoto1, Katsuma Hayashi1, Hiroshi Nishiura1
1Kyoto University School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan.
Frontiers in public health
|October 9, 2023
概括
老年人的热中风风险随着气候变化而增加. 支持孤独生活者和确保空调等干预措施可以将热中风的发生率降低高达40%.
科学领域:
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 热中风死亡率不成比例地影响到老年人,特别是75岁及以上的老年人.
- 预计气候变化将增加热中风的发生率,在老龄化社会中构成重大公共卫生挑战.
- 日本的超级老年社会需要积极的适应策略,以减轻老年人中热中风风险.
研究的目的:
- 确定老年人 (75岁以上) 中热中风的关键风险因素.
- 在各种气候变化场景下,模拟与热中风相关的救护车运输预计的增加.
- 评估潜在的适应措施在减少热中风发生率方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 针对75岁以上的576名参与者进行了横截面调查,以收集有关热中风病例 (2018-2019) 的数据.
- 使用倾向性得分匹配来调整混因素并估计干预措施的影响.
- 一种天气驱动的统计模型被用来预测未来的热冲击运输,并评估到2100年的适应情景.
主要成果:
- 独自生活 (OR 2.5) 是最重要的风险因素,其次是无法独立饮用水和缺乏空调.
- 预计与热中风相关的救护车运输在代表性度途径 (RCP) 4.5和8.5下与碳中和情景相比将增加30%以上.
- 减少30%的单身生活可能会减少15%的热中风发病率;改善所有三种风险因素70%可能会减少40%.
结论:
- 适应措施应侧重于支持独居的老年人,努力独立补水或缺乏空调.
- 为了抵消与RCP 2.6相比的气候变化影响,到2060年需要减少30%的风险;对于RCP 4.5,到2050年需要减少70%的风险.
- 在没有实质性干预的情况下,在高排放的RCP 8.5情景下,不太可能实现将热冲击传输减少到与RCP 1.9相当的水平的目标.
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