基于Nomogram的Covid-19患者生存预测模型:一项临床研究
Jinxin Xu1, Wenshan Zhang2, Yingjie Cai1
1Department of Thoracic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
Heliyon
|October 9, 2023
概括
一种新的名图有效地利用年龄,氧和度,BUN,CAR和肺炎得分来预测COVID-19患者的生存率. 这种工具有助于临床医生优化治疗策略,以获得更好的患者结果.
科学领域:
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 临床预测建模临床预测建模
背景情况:
- 预测COVID-19患者的生存率对于有效的临床管理至关重要.
- 现有模型可能需要改进以提高准确性和适用性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于预测COVID-19患者的生存期的准确名图.
- 确定影响COVID-19患者生存的关键预后因素.
主要方法:
- 分析了386名COVID-19患者的临床数据.
- 拉索和多变量考克斯回归确定了预后因素.
- 使用决策曲线分析,ROC曲线和校准图表构建并验证了一个名图.
主要成果:
- 开发了一个纳米图,包括年龄,静止氧和,BUN,CAR和肺炎视觉评分.
- 诺米图表显示出高预测准确度,c指数为0.846 (训练) 和0.81 (验证).
- 对于15天和30天生存的AUC在两个队列中都很高,表明表现强.
结论:
- 开发的名图是临床医生估计COVID-19患者存活时间的宝贵工具.
- 它促进了个性化的管理策略和治疗干预.
- 该模型在改善患者护理方面具有显著的临床适用性.
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