什么影响中国农民的相对贫困:基于统计和可解释的机器学习方法的全球分析
Wei Huang1, Yinke Liu1, Peiqi Hu1
1School of Management and Economics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
Heliyon
|October 9, 2023
概括
这项研究使用机器学习来确定影响中国农民相对贫困的关键因素. XGBoost实现了81.9%的准确性,为贫困治理和有针对性的干预提供了一个新的框架.
科学领域:
- 社会经济研究是社会经济研究.
- 发展经济学发展经济学
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
背景情况:
- 消除贫困是一个全球性挑战,相对贫困治理对于2020年后的中国来说变得至关重要.
- 解决农村农民贫困问题对于中国的中等繁荣目标至关重要.
- 现有的研究往往依赖于先验假设;需要创新的方法.
研究的目的:
- 确定和分析影响中国农村相对贫困的因素.
- 开发和应用一个新的机器学习框架,用于贫困治理.
- 提供一个透明和可解释的模型来识别面临风险的人群.
主要方法:
- 构建了一个针对中国环境而定制的相对贫困指数系统.
- 从个体特征,心理能力和地理环境中选择的变量.
- 应用机器学习算法,包括XGBoost,用于数据分析和因素识别.
主要成果:
- 机器学习,特别是XGBoost,在相对贫困研究中表现出高效率 (81.9%的准确率,0.819 ROC_AUC).
- 确定了25个影响农民相对贫困的关键因素.
- 可解释工具 (PDP,SHAP) 揭示了机器学习模型的透明度和非线性处理能力.
结论:
- 机器学习为相对贫困分析和治理提供了一种强大而准确的方法.
- 该研究为针对性减贫战略提供了强有力的框架和实际见解.
- 可解释的机器学习提高了对贫困研究中复杂的社会经济关系的理解.
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