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从1961年到2017年,中国西南地区极端气候事件的变化特征

Chunxue Wang¹, Chao Chen^2,3, Shunqian Zhang¹

¹Sichuan Climatic Center/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, 610072, China.

|October 9, 2023

概括

气候变化正在加剧极端天气事件. 在中国西南部,极端温暖的事件显著增加,而极端寒冷的事件从1961年到2017年减少.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
气候学气候学气候学
气象学天气学

背景情况:

气候变化正在增加全球极端气候事件的频率和强度.
这些事件对全球人类社会和生态系统产生了重大影响.
西南中国 (SWC) 是一个经历极端气候事件显著影响的地区.

研究的目的:

分析1961年至2017年中国西南地区极端气候事件的变化特征.
评估极端温暖,极端寒冷和极端降雨事件的趋势.
了解这些趋势的空间分布.

主要方法:

利用了来自南南中心的438个气象站的每日温度和降水数据.
分析了每年极端温暖事件,极端寒冷事件,极端大降水指数和暴雨指数的趋势.
应用统计分析来确定趋势的显著程度 (95%和99%的信心水平) 和空间分布.

主要成果:

在大多数站点 (99%的置信度水平) 中,每年的极端温暖事件显示出显著的上升趋势.
在大多数站点 (99%的置信度水平) 中,每年的极端寒冷事件显示出明显的下降趋势.
极端降水事件的趋势在空间上有所不同;然而,极端大降水的百分比显著增加 (99%的置信度水平),特别是在四川东北部,贵州中东部和云南中部.

结论:

从1961年到2017年,极端温暖事件在南南中心显著增加,与全球变暖趋势一致.
在同一时期,极端寒冷事件在SWC显著减少.
极端降水趋势的区域差异凸显了气候变化对水资源和南南中心的相关危害的复杂影响.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化极端降水事件的发生.极端温度事件的发生.中国西南地区的华南地区.变化趋势的变化趋势

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