每小时全球太阳辐射预测基于季节性和随机特征
You Li1,2, Yafei Wang3, Hui Qian1
1Dual-carbon Research Center, Hangzhou City University, Hangzhou, 310015, China.
Heliyon
|October 9, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一个新的太阳辐射模型,使用可访问的天气数据进行精确的建筑能源模拟. 该模型可靠地预测太阳辐射,即使在不同的天气条件下,改善建筑热和光伏系统的性能.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 建筑科学 建筑科学
- 大气物理学 大气物理学
背景情况:
- 准确的太阳辐射数据对于建筑热能和光伏 (PV) 系统模拟至关重要.
- 现有的模型往往缺乏精度,依赖于昂贵的数据,或仅限于晴天条件.
- 需要可靠,具有成本效益的太阳辐射模型,适用于不同的天气状态.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的,准确和可靠的太阳辐射模型.
- 为了模型构建,利用易于获得的表面气象参数.
- 为了提高每小时的太阳辐射的预测准确度,特别是在非晴天条件下.
主要方法:
- 对现有的太阳辐射模型进行全面分析.
- 将洞察力纳入季节性和随机性的太阳辐射特性.
- 开发和验证使用超过二十年的日本气象数据,包括度参数和相互作用变量.
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型显示出良好的预测准确性.
- 它有效地捕捉了太阳辐射的随机性质,在阴天和雨天表现良好.
- 通过包含相互作用变量来增强模型的可解释性.
结论:
- 新的减弱太阳辐射模型为建筑能源模拟提供了具有成本效益和准确的解决方案.
- 它解决了现有模型的局限性,通过在各种天气条件下提供可靠的每小时估计.
- 该模型的性能验证了其在可再生能源和建筑设计中的实际应用潜力.
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