多地平线短期负载预测使用混合LSTM和修改的分裂卷积
Irshad Ullah1, Syed Muhammad Hasanat1, Khursheed Aurangzeb2
1Electrical Engineering Kohat, University of Engineering & Technology Peshawar, Peshawar, KPK, Pakistan.
PeerJ. Computer science
|October 9, 2023
概括
本研究引入了一种新的混合LSTM-SC模型,用于准确的短期负载预测 (STLF). 该技术通过提高负载预测准确性和可靠性来增强电力系统操作.
科学领域:
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 人工智能的人工智能
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 准确的短期负载预测 (STLF) 对电力系统稳定性,规划和需求响应至关重要.
- 现有的STLF方法因数据非静止性和复杂的气象依赖性而面临挑战.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种新的混合技术,LSTM-SC,用于增强单步和多步STLF.
- 评估模型在提取依赖序列和空间特征的能力,以提高预测准确度.
主要方法:
- 结合长期短期记忆 (LSTM) 和修改后的分割卷积 (SC) 神经网络 (LSTM-SC) 的混合模型被开发出来.
- 该模型使用巴基斯坦国家电网负载数据集 (NTDC) 和公共数据集 (AEP,ISO-NE) 进行了训练和验证.
- 分析了气象特征,特别是温度对预测准确性的影响.
主要成果:
- 该LSTM-SC模型在NTDC数据集上表现出卓越的性能,在单步和多步预测中实现了较低的错误率 (RMSE,MAE,MAPE).
- 该模型在AEP和ISO-NE数据集上测试时表现出强大的概括能力.
- 研究温度的影响证实了其对负载预测准确性的重大影响.
结论:
- 拟议的LSTM-SC混合技术为STLF提供了强大而准确的解决方案.
- 该模型能够处理复杂的数据依赖性及其泛化性能使其适合于现实世界电力系统应用.
- 进一步的研究可以探索结合更多功能和先进的混合架构,以获得更高的预测精度.
相关概念视频
Load-frequency control
173
Load-frequency control (LFC) is vital for maintaining power system stability, ensuring that frequency and power flows remain within acceptable limits during load changes. Turbine-governor control eliminates rotor accelerations and decelerations following load changes. However, a steady-state frequency error persists when the change in the turbine-governor reference setting is zero. In an interconnected power system, each area agrees to export or import a scheduled amount of power through...
173
Distributed Loads: Problem Solving
656
Beams are structural elements commonly employed in engineering applications requiring different load-carrying capacities. The first step in analyzing a beam under a distributed load is to simplify the problem by dividing the load into smaller regions, which allows one to consider each region separately and calculate the magnitude of the equivalent resultant load acting on each portion of the beam. The magnitude of the equivalent resultant load for each region can be determined by calculating...
656
Multimachine Stability
170
Multimachine stability analysis is crucial for understanding the dynamics and stability of power systems with multiple synchronous machines. The objective is to solve the swing equations for a network of M machines connected to an N-bus power system.
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
170
Distributed Loads
543
Distributed loads are a common type of load that engineers and scientists encounter in various practical situations. Distributed loads often refer to a type of load spread over a surface or a structure and can be modeled as continuous force per unit area.
For example, consider a bookshelf filled with books stacked vertically adjacent to each other. The weight of the books is evenly distributed over the length of the shelf. As a result, the pressure at different locations on the surface of the...
For example, consider a bookshelf filled with books stacked vertically adjacent to each other. The weight of the books is evenly distributed over the length of the shelf. As a result, the pressure at different locations on the surface of the...
543
Convolution: Math, Graphics, and Discrete Signals
273
In any LTI (Linear Time-Invariant) system, the convolution of two signals is denoted using a convolution operator, assuming all initial conditions are zero. The convolution integral can be divided into two parts: the zero-input or natural response and the zero-state or forced response, with t0 indicating the initial time.
To simplify the convolution integral, it is assumed that both the input signal and impulse response are zero for negative time values. The graphical convolution process...
To simplify the convolution integral, it is assumed that both the input signal and impulse response are zero for negative time values. The graphical convolution process...
273
Fast Decoupled and DC Powerflow
219
The fast decoupled power flow method addresses contingencies in power system operations, such as generator outages or transmission line failures. This method provides quick power flow solutions, essential for real-time system adjustments. Fast decoupled power flow algorithms simplify the Jacobian matrix by neglecting certain elements, leading to two sets of decoupled equations:
219

