在撒哈拉以南非洲城市利用人口和健康调查绘制疟疾风险地图的空间优化方法
Camille Morlighem1,2, Celia Chaiban1,2, Stefanos Georganos3
1Department of Geography University of Namur Namur Belgium.
GeoHealth
|October 9, 2023
概括
空间优化方法可以通过解决数据位移问题来改善撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 的城市内疟疾风险映射. 然而,这些疟疾风险图的准确性受到流行病学数据质量的限制.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
背景情况:
- 疟疾等载体传播疾病在撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 的城市增长和气候变化加剧了.
- 城市内疟疾风险地图对于资源有限的环境中针对性干预至关重要.
- 人口和健康调查 (DHS) 提供了国家疟疾数据,但在空间上被排斥,限制了城市内规模的应用.
研究的目的:
- 预测南非地区城市 (达喀尔,达累斯萨拉姆,坎帕拉,瓦加杜古) 的城市内疟疾风险.
- 研究空间优化方法在克服DHS空间位移方面的有效性.
- 为了确定DHS采样策略的潜在适应,以改善城市内疟疾风险预测.
主要方法:
- 使用随机森林回归器建模疟疾风险.
- 使用遥感共变量 (城市气候,土地覆盖面,土地使用)
- 测试了几种空间优化方法,以减轻DHS坐标移位效应.
主要成果:
- 空间优化技术减少了DHS空间位移对预测性能的影响.
- 这些方法产生了更高的计算成本.
- 解释的差异百分比仍然很低 (30% - 40%),这表明由于流行病学数据质量的限制.
结论:
- 空间优化显示了改善城市内疟疾风险映射的希望,尽管数据有限.
- 目前的方法无法完全弥补DHS内在的数据质量问题,用于微量测绘.
- 建议对DHS采样策略进行调整,以提高城市内疟疾风险预测的可靠性.
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