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公用事业支付历史记录在预测首次无家可归者的价值
Colin D Middleton1, Kim Boynton2, David Lewis3
1Department of Mathematics, Eastern Washington University, Cheney, Washington, United States of America.
PloS one
|October 9, 2023
概括
预测无家可归是预防的关键. 公用事业支付历史记录提供了一种新的,具有成本效益的方法,可以在寻求援助之前,在一般人群中识别有风险的个人.
科学领域:
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 无家可归是美国的一个重大社会问题,每年影响数十万.
- 目前的无家可归者计划主要侧重于援助,而预测和预防措施更具成本效益.
- 现有的预测模型通常针对已经寻求帮助的个人,或依赖于不可用/过时的健康和犯罪史数据.
研究的目的:
- 探索最近金融健康信息的有用性,特别是公用事业支付历史,用于预测无家可归.
- 评估物流回归模型的有效性,使用公用事业账单记录进行无家可归风险评估.
- 确定公用事业支付数据是否可以识别一般人群中无家可归风险的个人.
主要方法:
- 利用后勤回归模型来分析公用事业客户计费记录.
- 专注于最近的金融健康指标,这些指标来自于付款历史记录.
- 评估模型的预测性能与已建立的基准.
主要成果:
- 公用事业支付历史数据在预测无家可归方面非常有价值.
- 基于公用事业账单记录的物流回归模型显示了与其他预测研究相比的性能.
- 实用数据的无处不在和及时性表明它有可能用于广泛的人口查.
结论:
- 最近的财务状况,特别是公用事业支付历史,是无家可归的可行预测指标.
- 公用事业账单记录可以有效地用于选无家可归风险的一般人口.
- 这种方法为早期识别和预防无家可归提供了一种可扩展和及时的方法.
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