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对人类的风险大大增加,因为经验上确定了较低的湿热应激耐受性
Daniel J Vecellio1, Qinqin Kong2, W Larry Kenney1,3,4
1Center for Healthy Aging, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.
概括
气候变化加剧了热浪,对人类生存构成风险. 新的研究揭示了人类温度调节的较低湿球温度 (Tw) 极限,突出了即使在1.5°C升温的情况下,对危险的热应激的脆弱性增加.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 人类生理学 人类生理学
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在增加热浪的频率,强度和持续时间.
- 35°C的理论湿球温度 (Tw) 之前被提出为人类温度调节的上限.
- 最近的经验研究表明,人类温度调节的Tw值显著较低,即使活动最小.
研究的目的:
- 用一个更准确的,经验推导的Tw值来量化未来暴露于危险的热应激.
- 在不同的全球变暖水平上预测热应激风险.
- 在未来的气候情景下,评估人类对潮热压力的脆弱性.
主要方法:
- 利用了最新的合气候模型结果.
- 采用最近为Tw建立的经验临界环境极限.
- 量化预计暴露在可能致命的热条件下.
主要成果:
- 人类面临更大的脆弱性湿热应激由于较低的热极限.
- 将全球变暖限制在2°C以下,将大大减少对无法弥补的热浪的暴露.
- 预计在2°C升温时,将会有广泛的危险热应激,并确定了不同升温水平的特定热点 (例如,中东,印度河谷,中国,非洲,美国中西部).
- 暴露于极端潮湿的热量将超过人类的历史经验和数十亿人的当前适应能力.
结论:
- 降低热极限增加了人类对热浪的脆弱性.
- 将变暖限制在2°C以下对于减轻广泛的热应激风险至关重要.
- 为了应对超越当前战略的未来极端热量,需要进行重大的行为,文化和技术适应.
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