当地干预对全球技术变革的影响通过溢出影响:一个建模框架和应用于公路货运部门的应用
Bessie Noll1, Bjarne Steffen2,3, Tobias S Schmidt1,3
1Energy and Technology Policy Group, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH Zurich, Zurich 8092, Switzerland.
概括
公共政策可以加速全球技术变革. 这项研究模拟了当地干预措施,如电动汽车的干预措施,如何产生溢出效应,影响全球技术竞争和采用.
科学领域:
- 技术经济建模技术经济建模
- 创新研究是创新研究.
- 可持续发展政策 可持续发展政策
背景情况:
- 全球可持续性挑战需要政策干预来推动技术变革.
- 地方政策干预可以产生显著的,但未经定量化的,全球创新溢出效应.
- 现有的计算模型缺乏捕捉这些关键溢出动态的能力.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种计算方法来量化地方需求侧政策对全球技术竞争的前期影响.
- 分析市场规模和创新潜力等因素如何调节这些溢出效应.
- 评估政策干预对采用新技术的影响,以公路货运为案例研究.
主要方法:
- 开发一种技术经济离散选择模型,结合内生技术学习.
- 引入两个关键因素:选择环境的相对规模和相对的创新潜力.
- 该模型应用于公路货运,模拟需求拉动干预和地缘政治冲击.
主要成果:
- 地方政策干预可以加速电动汽车在公路货运中的增长.
- 当强有力的政策在大型或多个地区实施时,会产生重大的全球溢出效应.
- 通过广泛的灵敏度分析证实了模型的稳定性.
结论:
- 计算建模可以有效量化政策驱动的技术溢出影响.
- 有针对性的,大规模的区域政策对于最大限度地提高干预措施的全球影响至关重要.
- 结果为加速其他行业的利基技术转型提供了洞察力.
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