在1918年流感大流行中,脆弱性和生存率
Amanda Wissler1, Sharon N DeWitte2,3
1Department of Anthropology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4M4, Canada.
概括
1918年流感大流行不成比例地影响了年轻人. 新的生物考古研究表明,在这个历史性的流行病期间,不仅仅是健康的人,还有潜在的脆弱的人面临更高的死亡风险.
科学领域:
- 生物考古学的生物考古学
- 古病理学 古病理学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 1918年流感大流行导致高死亡率,特别是在年轻人中.
- 当代报告表明,健康人群是主要受害者,挑战了传统的死亡率模型.
- 选择性死亡率通常认为,最脆弱的个体面临最高风险.
研究的目的:
- 调查1918年流感大流行期间潜在的脆弱性是否导致死亡率.
- 为了测试看似健康的年轻成年人被不成比例地影响的假设.
- 将生物考古学方法应用于骨遗骸,以评估死亡时的健康状况.
主要方法:
- 对来自哈曼-托德骨科收藏369名个体的骨遗骸 (骨周骨新骨形成) 的分析.
- 骨健康指标与死亡年龄的相关性.
- 使用Kaplan-Meier生存率和Cox比例危险模型进行统计分析.
主要成果:
- 骨证据表明,有系统性压力 (活跃周骨病变) 的个体的死亡风险是两倍以上.
- 这些发现与健康年轻成年人选择性死亡率的假设相矛盾.
- 死亡风险不均;潜在的脆弱性显著增加了脆弱性.
结论:
- 在1918年流感大流行期间,脆弱或不健康的个体更容易死亡.
- 个人生活经历和潜在的健康状况影响了流行病死亡率,即使在年轻人中也是如此.
- 这项研究提供了关于健康变异如何影响流行病结果的历史视角.
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