开发一种基于行为模式的测试方法,用于关联的社会经济和环境模型
Mohammad Reza Alizadeh1, Xingyu Peng1, Jan Adamowski1
1Dept. of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, QC, Canada.
Journal of environmental management
|October 9, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一种基于行为模式的新方法,用于测试综合环境模型. 这种方法通过捕捉随时间推移的系统动态来改善水表深度的模拟,有助于可持续管理.
科学领域:
- 环境建模环境建模
- 社会经济系统分析分析社会经济系统分析
- 可持续的环境管理 可持续的环境管理
背景情况:
- 综合模型 (Dynamically Coupled Socioeconomic system dynamics models integrated with physically-based Environmental Models - DCSEMs) 对于理解人类与环境的相互作用至关重要,因为它们可以帮助我们理解人类与环境的相互作用.
- 现有的模型测试方法侧重于点对点分析,这对于以行为模式为导向的DCSEM来说是不够的.
- 缺乏基于行为模式的测试,阻碍了DCSEM的适应性和可靠性.
研究的目的:
- 为DCSEMs提出并展示一种基于行为模式的新型模型测试方法.
- 通过评估模型输出与现实世界的趋势之间的相似性来加强综合模型的评估.
- 提高DCSEM的性能和适应性,以实现可持续的环境管理.
主要方法:
- 全球敏感性分析 (GSA)
- 自动校准算法自动校准算法
- 评估模型输出和现实世界的趋势之间的行为模式相似性.
- 部分不平等的统计分析和参数分布分析.
主要成果:
- 提出的基于行为模式的方法有效地校准和评估用于水表深度模拟的DCSEM.
- 与传统的基于点的方法相比,这种方法更好地复制了随着时间的推移观察到的系统行为模式.
- 该方法成功地捕捉了空间异质性,在数据有限,空间分布的场景中提高了DCSEM的性能.
结论:
- 新型基于行为模式的测试程序非常适合数据有限,空间分布的DCSEM.
- 这种方法提高了可持续环境管理的综合模型的可靠性和适应性.
- 该研究为测试和改进复杂的社会经济和环境模型提供了强大的框架.
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