建模国家枪支法律采用使用时间网络模型
Duncan A Clark1, James Macinko1, Maurizio Porfiri2
1Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles.
The Milbank quarterly
|October 11, 2023
概括
国家枪支法律的采用受到内部因素和邻国的影响. 新的社交网络方法比标准方法更准确地预测政策传播,有助于理解法律采用动态.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 网络科学 网络科学
背景情况:
- 国家枪支监管因价值观和信仰的多样性而有所不同.
- 由于复杂的影响因素,预测枪支法律的采用是具有挑战性的.
研究的目的:
- 确定影响国家采用枪支政策的因素.
- 预测各州通过新枪支相关法律的可能性.
- 利用社交网络分析来理解政策传播.
主要方法:
- 采用了一个时间指数家族随机图形模型.
- 分析了1979年至2020年的州枪支法律.
- 对内部和外部状态特征进行控制.
主要成果:
- 国家内部因素是采用枪支法律的关键预测因素.
- 邻国的国家的行动显著影响政策的传播.
- 场景分析揭示了具体国家采用如何影响网络结构和未来传播.
结论:
- 社交网络方法优于传统的政策传播研究.
- 与机器学习工具相比,拟议的框架提供了更高的预测准确性.
- 这种方法可以应用于研究其他领域的政策扩散.
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