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在气候变化下的人类影响的景观中,长鹿的巨大草食动物的灭绝风险和减缓
Monica L Bond1,2, Derek E Lee2,3, Maria Paniw1
1Department of Conservation Biology, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Seville, Spain.
Global change biology
|October 11, 2023
概括
保护长鹿需要加强执法,以打击偷猎,这是最大的威胁. 加强执法减轻了息地变化和气候变化的影响,保护了坦桑尼亚的长鹿种群.
科学领域:
- 生态与保护生物学 生态与保护生物学
- 野生动物管理 野生动物管理
- 人口动态 人口动态
背景情况:
- 大草食动物对于生态系统的功能至关重要,但面临着人类活动和气候变化的威胁.
- 了解对人口动态的综合影响对于有效的保护至关重要.
- 人类影响的景观中的长鹿种群需要有针对性的管理策略.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个基于社会结构的个人模型 (IBM) 来预测雌性长鹿种群动态.
- 评估环境和土地利用变化对坦桑尼亚塔兰吉尔生态系统中长鹿大群的长期影响.
- 在全球变化压力下确定长鹿的主要威胁和有效的保护策略.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自雌性长鹿 (Giraffa camelopardalis) 的长期人口统计数据.
- 开发并应用一个社会结构化的基于个人的模型 (IBM).
- 在各种场景下模拟50年预测,包括土地使用变化,执法,捕食者/猎物动态和降雨变化等.
主要成果:
- 减少执法导致偷猎增加是导致长鹿数量迅速减少的主要驱动因素.
- 改善的执法显著减轻了息地扩张和降雨量增加的负面影响.
- 加强执法使长鹿的数量增加了19%,而大雨则增加了19%,而城市扩张则增加了22%.
结论:
- 加强野生动物执法对于减轻偷猎和保护长鹿种群至关重要.
- 开发的IBM提供了一种灵活的工具,用于评估人类影响的生态系统中的保护策略.
- 有效管理人类与野生动物的相互作用对于长期生存至关重要,像长鹿这样的大草食动物.
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