2020年全球,区域和国家一生患癌症的概率
Rongshou Zheng1, Shaoming Wang1, Siwei Zhang1
1National Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China.
Science bulletin
|October 11, 2023
概括
全球大约四分之一的人在一生中会患上癌症. 这个全球癌症风险因国家,性别和人类发展水平而异,前列腺癌和乳腺癌是最常见的.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 终身癌症风险评估对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
- 跨不同人群的相对癌症风险数据仍然有限.
- 了解癌症发病率变化是有效预防策略的关键.
研究的目的:
- 估计全球从出生到死亡的癌症的终身风险.
- 根据国家,人类发展水平和性别分析癌症风险的变化.
- 在全球范围内确定具有最高终身风险的特定癌症类型.
主要方法:
- 使用调整为多个初级的方法来估计终身癌症风险.
- 185个国家/地区的就业GLOBOCAN 2020数据.
- 联合国综合人口和所有原因死亡率数据.
主要成果:
- 全球终身癌症风险估计为25.10% (4人中的1人).
- 男性 (26.27%) 的风险高于女性 (23.96%).
- 根据人类发展指数 (HDI) 观察到显著的差异,在非常高的HDI国家,风险为38.48%.
- 前列腺癌 (4.65%) 和乳腺癌 (5.90%) 分别为男性和女性的终身风险最高.
- 癌症风险随着年龄的增长而下降,从70岁起,其余风险为12.61%.
结论:
- 全球大约有四分之一的人面临终身癌症诊断.
- 癌症风险不均,在不同地理区域和发展水平上有很大差异.
- 研究结果为有针对性的癌症预防计划和卫生系统资源分配提供了必要的数据.
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